Volume 11, Issue 42
Week of December 15th, 2008
In This Issue
Feature: The Top Ten Predictions For 2009
- Upcoming Train Wrecks
- The Right Price of Oil
- China’s Aerospace Move
Quotes of The Week
Publisher’s Note: We had a wonderful Fourth Annual Predictions Dinner last week in New York, with a great group of global press friends and business colleagues. Because of the unique contextual circumstances of this event, I asked Bill Janeway, Senior Advisor to Warburg Pincus, to join me for a half-hour chat about his perspective on the current economic scene.
You can hear that talk, which we billed as “Crisis and Consequences: Connecting Wall St. and Main St.,” right here:
Having written his Princeton thesis on the Great Depression, Bill brought his usual historic acuity to current economic events. Perhaps his most important conclusion: “1933 does not have to be 1931,î”meaning that, although we’ve had a 1931 event already, we don’t have to suffer the same fate as people did in 1933. We know more, our systems are better, our responses quicker and more global.
Among our participants this year: the Department of Defense, the Financial Times, BusinessWeek, the Wall St. Journal, FORTUNE, and Portfolio. To add to the excitement of the week, we were contacted by the Obama transition team just as we arrived in New York, asking for help in a new SNS Project Inkwell – related 1:1 program in education.
Each year, before setting out the predictions, I include a running tally of the prior year’s accuracy, and of our record since we started this four years ago. For our 2008 predictions, the accuracy figure was 96%; and for four years running, we are now at a rate of 96.75% correct.
As you’ll see, I stuck my neck out even further for 2009, I think, than in past years. — mra